Saudis weighing more Typhoons or more F-15s

Amid growing security concerns in the Gulf region over Iran, the Royal Saudi Air Force (RSAF) is reported to be stepping up its efforts to buy more advanced fighters  to renew its ageing inventory of 68 Northrop F/RF-5Es, 70 F-15C Eagles and 22 Tornado ADVs.

Riyadh is in talks with Britain over possibly doubling its £20 billion (US$23.36 billion) order, placed in September 2007, for 72 Eurofighter Typhoon Tranche 2s, with an add-on purchase buttressed by a support deal. The kingdom has also held exploratory talks with Boeing about adding F-15SE Silent Eagles to its fleet of 69 F-15S Strike Eagles.

Any Saudi contract for additional Typhoons is not expected to be signed until the first 24 Tranche 2 aircraft, being delivered from the UK, are in service. The first two of these, which are being diverted from the British Royal Air Force (RAF) order, were delivered to the RSAF on June 11 in the UK. The remaining 48 Typhoons in the initial RSAF contract are to be assembled in the Arab kingdom.

According to one source close to the new discussions, “Saudi Arabia has not finalised its requirements or decided if it will hold a competition, or go with one player.” A second source says that the RSAF is expected to split its new order into two batches of 36 aircraft and could end up by ordering more than 100 new fighters.

Typhoon Tranche 3B in doubt

The UK Government finally agreed in principle on May 14 to the Typhoon Tranche 3A contract proposed by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, under which the RAF will take a further 40 aircraft, the German Air Force 30 and the Italian and Spanish air forces 21 each (MPI June 15, 2009, page 4). But the chances of Britain and Germany honouring their Tranche 3B commitments, for another 48 and 37 Typhoons, respectively, to be ordered in the next 24 months, are shrinking by the day under economic pressures.

Once the Tranche 3A order is signed, the British and German air forces will have 160 and 143 Typhoons on order, largely adequate for national requirements. The emphasis thereafter will be on reducing through-life costs by 50% and further upgrading the ground attack capabilities of the new and existing aircraft, for example by fitting an e-scan Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar.

AESA radar and NGJ required

An e-scan AESA radar is essential, not only for the British and German air forces, but also if further export orders are to be won, particularly in India. Italy, however, remains to be convinced, since the Italian Air Force’s Typhoons are dedicated almost exclusively to the interceptor role and the Italians are perfectly happy with Selex Galileo’s me-chanically-scanned Captor radar as currently fitted.

In MPI’s opinion, the UK – and possibly Germany – should also join the US Navy program to develop, by 2018, a Next Generation Jammer (NGJ) to counter late-model Russian S-300 and more recent S-400 Surface-to-Air Missile (SAM) systems. These are lethal against all western combat aircraft (including Typhoon and the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter), with the sole exceptions being the US Air Force’s stealthy F-22 Raptor fighter and B2 strategic bomber.

Emphasis on export

If the UK and Germany indeed decline to fulfill their Typhoon Tranche 3B orders, the onus will be on the British and German partners in Eurofighter GmbH – BAE Systems and EADS Deutschland – to bring in more export orders.

In addition to Saudi Arabia, BAE has a good chance of winning an order for ex-RAF aircraft from the Royal Air Force of Oman (RAFO), which has expressed a requirement for 24 second-hand Typhoons.

EADS Deutschland’s best export bets, both of which will probably depend on offering the aircraft with an AESA radar, are the Indian Air Force competition for 126 Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCAs) and the Swiss Air Force competition for 22 New Fighter Aircraft (NFAs).

The result of the latter has just been postponed until a referendum in 2011, called by the campaigners for Switzerland Without an Army (page 5, this issue). This will probably bring it into line with the result of the far larger Indian competition and, coincidentally, with the deadline for Typhoon Tranche 3B signatures. © DAPSS  S.A., 2009, Switzerland

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